Estimating Potential Climate Change Effects on the Upper Neuse Watershed Water Balance Using the SWAT Model

Climate change poses water resource challenges for many already water stressed watersheds throughout the world. One such watershed is the Upper Neuse Watershed in North Carolina, which serves as a water source for the large and growing Research Triangle Park region. The aim of this study was to quantify possible changes in the watershed’s water balance due to climate change. To do this, we used the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model forced with different climate scenarios for baseline, mid‐century, and end‐century time periods using five different downscaled General Circulation Models. Before running these scenarios, the SWAT model was calibrated and validated using daily streamflow records within the watershed. The study results suggest that, even under a mitigation scenario, precipitation will increase by 7.7% from the baseline to mid‐century time period and by 9.8% between the baseline and end‐century time period. Over the same periods, evapotranspiration (ET) would decrease by 5.5 and 7.6%, water yield would increase by 25.1% and 33.2%, and soil water would increase by 1.4% and 1.9%. Perhaps most importantly, the model results show, under a high emission scenario, large seasonal differences with ET estimated to decrease by up to 42% and water yield to increase by up to 157% in late summer and fall. Planning for the wetter predicted future and corresponding seasonal changes will be critical for mitigating the impacts of climate change on water resources.     

太原汾河景区跨桥断面水体污染的时空变化模式研究

选取太原汾河景区跨桥断面8个监测点,在2012年3月—2013年10月期间对河流8项水质参数进行监测,并结合派生的水体综合污染指数及主成分分析方法分析和评价景区水污染时空变化特征。结果表明,景区水质污染变化时空差异明显,上游污染相对较小,下游污染较重;春季溶解氧和p H值变化幅度最大,夏季除总氮和氨氮外,其他各污染物均有显著变化特征,秋季则以氨氮、总氮和总磷变化最为显著。主成分分析结果显示,虽然各监测点水体污染的关键影响因子不同,但总磷是太原市河流水体污染的共同解释因子。     

Comparison and Evaluation of Gridded Precipitation Datasets in a Kansas Agricultural Watershed Using SWAT

Gridded precipitation datasets are becoming a convenient substitute for gauge measurements in hydrological modeling; however, these data have not been fully evaluated across a range of conditions. We compared four gridded datasets (Daily Surface Weather and Climatological Summaries [DAYMET], North American Land Data Assimilation System [NLDAS], Global Land Data Assimilation System [GLDAS], and Parameter‐elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model [PRISM]) as precipitation data sources and evaluated how they affected hydrologic model performance when compared with a gauged dataset, Global Historical Climatology Network‐Daily (GHCN‐D). Analyses were performed for the Delaware Watershed at Perry Lake in eastern Kansas. Precipitation indices for DAYMET and PRISM precipitation closely matched GHCN‐D, whereas NLDAS and GLDAS showed weaker correlations. We also used these precipitation data as input to the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model that confirmed similar trends in streamflow simulation. For stations with complete data, GHCN‐D based SWAT‐simulated streamflow variability better than gridded precipitation data. During low flow periods we found PRISM performed better, whereas both DAYMET and NLDAS performed better in high flow years. Our results demonstrate that combining gridded precipitation sources with gauge‐based measurements can improve hydrologic model performance, especially for extreme events.     

Effects of land use,cover, and protection on stream and riparian ecosystem services and biodiversity

Protected areas are an important part of broader landscapes that are often used to preserve biodiversity or natural features. Some argue that protected areas may also help ensure provision of ecosystem services. However, the effect of protection on ecosystem services and whether protection affects the provision of ecosystem services is known only for a few services in a few types of landscapes. We sought to fill this gap by investigating the effect of watershed protection status and land use and land cover on biodiversity and the provision of ecosystem services. We compared the ecosystem services provided in and around streams in 4 watershed types: International Union for Conservation of Nature category II protected forests, unprotected forests, unprotected forests with recent timber harvesting, and unprotected areas with agriculture. We surveyed 28 streams distributed across these watershed types in Quebec, Canada, to quantify provisioning of clean water, carbon storage, recreation, wild foods, habitat quality, and terrestrial and aquatic biodiversity richness and abundance. The quantity and quality of ecosystem services and biodiversity were generally higher in sites with intact forest—whether protected or not—relative to those embedded in production landscapes with forestry or agriculture. Clean-water provision, carbon storage, habitat quality, and tree diversity were significantly higher in and around streams surrounded by forest. Recreation, wild foods, and aquatic biodiversity did not vary among watershed types. Although some services can be provided by both protected and unprotected areas, protection status may help secure the continued supply of services sensitive to changes in land use or land cover. Our findings provide needed information about the ecosystem service and biodiversity trade-offs and synergies that result from developing a watershed or from protecting it.     

生态环境变化遥感评价指数的应用研究——以敖江流域为例

利用1994年5月12日与2009年6月6日的Landsat TM和2001年5月23日的Landsat ETM＋卫星影像,选用遥感生态指数（RSEI）,结合流域的植被覆盖度状况,定量评价了15年间敖江流域的生态环境变化与植被覆盖度变化情况,并对二者的关系进行了简要分析.结果表明：15年间,敖江流域生态等级为优所占的面积比例从13.48％上升到24.90％,增加了304.29 km2;植被覆盖度等级为极高的面积增加比例为29.31％.总体看来,敖江流域生态环境状况和植被覆盖状况均有明显的提高,两者具有较好的对应关系.     

鄱阳湖流域排污权初始分配模式的比较研究

排污权初始分配是排污权交易的起点和基础,在分配模式和实证研究方面需要加强。采用地区人口法、经济总量法、历史排污量法、环境容量法和综合分配法5种模式研究了鄱阳湖流域11个地市水污染物化学需氧量(COD)与氨氮的初始排污权分配。结果表明:COD和氨氮初始排污权在地市之间的分配格局相似;南昌、新余与鹰潭3市按经济总量模式分配的排污量明显高于其它模式,上饶、吉安两市人口分配模式高于其它模式,景德镇、九江两市历史排污量模式高于其它模式,赣州市环境容量模式高于其它模式,宜春市综合模式高于其它模式。综合分配模式为赣州市排污权总量最高,南昌、九江、吉安、宜春、抚州和上饶6市次之,景德镇、萍乡、新余、鹰潭4市最低。总体来看,排污权配额因分配模式不同而有所差异,综合分配模式得到的初始排污权最为合理。建议鄱阳湖流域严格执行综合分配模式下的各地市初始排污权分配额度,确保区域经济社会与生态环境的协调发展。     

Fuelwood assessment at the micro-watershed level:a case study in Garhwal Himalaya,India

Biomass,as fuelwood,is one of the major sources of energy in rural areas,especially in the mountainous regions of the world.As the increasing human population exerts more pressure on the forest thereby inducing an adverse effect on the sustainability of the ecosystem,which consequently causes fuelwood crisis at a local level,this crisis is spatio-temporal in nature.Thus,the major objective of this study is to assess the sustainability of fuelwood at different probable scenarios at a micro watershed level.The present study was conducted in the Phakot watershed,the Tehri Garhwal district of central Himalaya in India,during 2006-2008.Based on the vegetation composition in the study area,the net primary productivity(NPP)value of the Oak forest,and mixed oak and sal forests,was used for the quantification of fuelwood availability in evergreen and deciduous forests,respectively.The fuelwood demand was calculated on the basis of seasonal fuelwood consumption values.Nine probable permutations for availability-demand scenarios assuming the existence of high(H),low(L)and average(A)conditions were analyzed for evaluating the stress.The available annual harvestable fuelwood in the watershed is in the minimum and maximum ranges of 2283.28 to 4066.00 tons,respectively,per year whereas it has a demand of 110.76 tons as the minimum to 3659 tons as the maximum annually.This shows that in the current availabilitydemand scenario,the watershed does not have fuelwood crisis in the present situation but needs to maintain the sustainability of the system.Based on our study,it is concluded that,globally,more spatio-temporal study is required to understand the issues at the local level.     

汉江上游金水河流域氮湿沉降

汉江上游金水河流域是南水北调工程的重要水源涵养区,但是氮污染已成为该流域水质的主要威胁因素.该研究对汉江的金水河流域开展了为期1 a(2012-02~2013-02)的氮湿沉降观测,并利用氮输出模型估算了氮湿沉降对河流氮负荷的贡献量.结果表明雨水中总氮(DTN)的浓度在0.24~2.89 mg·L-1之间,铵态氮(NH+4-N)、硝态氮(NO-3N)及有机氮(DON)分别占42.8%、13.3%和43.9%;雨水氮浓度随降雨量增大而变小,明显受到降雨的稀释作用.流域内氮湿沉降主要来自人类活动,沉降负荷在4.97~7.00 kg·(hm2·a)-1之间,受降雨量的主要影响,上游地区的氮湿沉降负荷>下游地区>中游地区,春夏两季约占全年氮湿沉降的81%.流域氮湿沉降对河流氮负荷贡献量约为34 000~46 000 kg,只占流域氮肥贡献量的5.05%~6.78%,远小于流域内农业活动化肥氮的贡献量,不是河流氮的主要来源.     

典型喀斯特小流域水文水化学过程对旱季暴雨的响应

通过定位监测和样品跟踪采集,在旱季对喀斯特小流域连续20天无前期降雨的一场暴雨(累计降雨量64mm)水文水化学过程进行了动态监测,并分析了相关的影响因素。结果表明,小降雨事件(8.5mm)未能引起溪流水位、电导率及温度的明显变化,而当累计降雨量达到35.5mm后溪流水开始响应。此后,溪流水文水化学参数对降雨快速响应,除硝态氮外,电导率(EC)、δ18 O、Ca2+迅速降至最低值,雨水稀释作用对其水化学变化起主要作用。通过对溪流新旧水比例进行划分发现,降雨前期和后期,溪流以旧水补给为主,而在水位快速上涨阶段,新水比例达到34%左右。两次降雨过程中,在溪流水水位升高的情况下,水体中硝态氮浓度仍然表现出高于雨前浓度的趋势。该研究为该区旱季小流域水资源利用和污染物防治方面提供了一定理论依据。     

基于模糊物元模型的西苕溪流域生态系统健康评价

本文借助RS/GIS技术,结合遥感影像数据、环境监测数据和社会经济数据,运用模糊物元模型,从水域、水陆交错带和陆域子系统选取21项评价指标,建立了流域生态系统健康综合评价指标体系,对西苕溪流域生态系统健康状况的空间分布规律和限制性因子进行了探讨.研究结果表明,西苕溪流域生态系统健康整体呈现出优良状态,其中,生态系统健康优秀地区面积占68.2%,良好地区面积占31.8%,能够正常发挥流域服务功能,维持生态系统可持续发展.西苕溪流域生态系统健康在空间分布上呈现出上游好、下游差的局面.在各子系统健康评价中,水域生态系统优于陆域生态系统,水陆交错带生态系统最差.底栖动物完整性遭受破坏、湿地退化、人为干扰活动、水源涵养功能减弱、点源和面源污染负荷较重是限制西苕溪流域部分评价单元生态系统健康的重要因素.